重庆宋官窑珐琅彩国际收藏家

重庆宋官窑珐琅彩国际收藏家

春节假期结束，虽然松弛的心还不能一下子从假期的愉悦里走出来，但在中国艺术市场，各路人马早已厉兵秣马、蓄势待发，准备提速运转，全力备战兴奋且忐忑的2019。

At the end of the Spring Festival holidays, although relaxed hearts can not suddenly come out of the joy of the holidays, but in the Chinese art market, people and horses have been ready to start, ready to speed up operation, full preparation for exciting and hesitant 2009.

在刚刚过去的2018年，中国艺术品拍卖市场经历了预料之中的回落。近期发布的《中国艺术品拍卖市场调查报告2018秋》显示，2018年中国艺术品市场拍卖总成交额为563.18 亿元，同比2017下滑了12.4%。

In the past 2018, the Chinese art auction market has experienced an unexpected decline. According to the recently released "China Art Auction Market Survey Report 2018 Autumn", the total volume of auction sales in China Art Market in 2018 was 56.318 billion yuan, down 12.4% from the same period in 2017.

《中国艺术品拍卖市场调查报告2018秋》

China Art Auction Market Survey Report Autumn 2018

这个数字相较于我们在2018年的目见和耳闻或许还算温和。因为2018 年几乎是金融危机以来中国经济变数多的一年：中美贸易战开打，制造业和贸易增速放缓，投资渠道收窄，持续加重着投资不确定性的焦虑。一直以来都与经济环境密切相关的文物艺术品拍卖市场，必然受到影响。

This figure may be mild compared with what we saw and heard in 2018. Because 2018 is almost the most variable year in China's economy since the financial crisis: the beginning of Sino-US trade war, the slowdown of manufacturing and trade growth, and the narrowing of investment channels continue to aggravate the anxiety of investment uncertainty. The auction market of cultural relics and artworks, which has always been closely related to the economic environment, will inevitably be affected.

2018年中国艺术品市场产生了25件过亿拍品，但相比2017年的42件，仍有一定下滑

China's art market produced more than 25 million pieces in 2018, but compared with 42 pieces in 2017, there is still a decline.

而在2019年，中国经济同样充满变数。中美贸易战虽然已经爆发，但其对中国经济的影响在2019年才会真正开始；而备受瞩目的中美贸易谈判仍在博弈之中，谈判的结果将直接影响接下去的市场信心。加之国内经济发展的增长压力累积，以及基于艺术品市场的周期性判断，《报告》对即将到来的2019年春拍，也给出了同比下滑15%（预测值为268.7亿元）的预期。

In 2019, China's economy is also full of variables. Although the Sino-US trade war has erupted, its impact on China's economy will not really begin until 2019; and the much-watched Sino-US trade negotiations are still in the game, and the outcome of the negotiations will directly affect the confidence of the next market. In addition to the cumulative growth pressure of domestic economic development, and based on the periodic judgment of the art market, the report also forecasts a 15% year-on-year decline (forecast value is 26.87 billion yuan) in the coming spring of 2019.

不过就像GDP不直接与每个人的收入挂钩一样，作为非标准化商品的艺术品市场，在判断大环境之外，真正的机遇事实上仍蕴藏在非常具体的板块、类别、风格甚至某位艺术家的某一件作品中。所以即便2019年宏观趋势仍会下滑，但市场中却仍有捡漏、制造新需求和捕捉新机会的可能，这也是其魅力之处。

那么下面，我们就基于《报告》所给出的2018年市场变化，以及正在发生的事实，对2019年中国艺术品市场各主要板块的动向及可能走势进行前瞻性地分析：

But just as GDP is not directly linked to everyone's income, as a non-standardized commodity art market, beyond judging the general environment, the real opportunities are still embedded in a very specific plate, category, style and even a certain artist's work. So even though the macro trend will continue to decline in 2019, there is still the possibility of leaking, creating new demand and capturing new opportunities in the market, which is also its charm.

Then, based on the market changes in 2018 and the facts that are happening, we will make a forward-looking analysis of the trends and possible trends of the major sectors of the Chinese art market in 2019.

近现代书画：中价格持续拉锯

Modern Calligraphy and Painting: Continuous Sawing at Middle and High Prices

2018 年，中国书画板块未能延续年止跌回暖的趋势，成交额同比下降近16%，为近5年来市场低点，市场两极分化趋势日益严重。

In 2018, the Chinese painting and calligraphy sector failed to continue the trend of warming up from the previous year. The turnover dropped nearly 16% year on year, the lowest level in the past five years, and the trend of market polarization became more and more serious.

对于2019年中国书画的走势，龚继遂指出：“中国书画板块的市场份额在高峰期曾占到交易总量的70%，形成了远远其他门类的成交量和单价。尤其是近现代书画成为艺术品市场的‘高原’型板块，普遍其他门类，适度的下调，不但在情理之中，也是一定的业内共识。”

For the trend of Chinese painting and calligraphy in 2019, Gong Jisui pointed out: "The market share of the Chinese painting and calligraphy sector in the peak period once accounted for 70% of the total volume of transactions, forming a much higher volume and unit price than other categories. Especially modern painting and calligraphy has become a plateau plate in the art market, generally higher than other categories, moderate downward adjustment, not only in reason, but also a certain industry consensus.

2019年，对于中国书画中份额大近现代书画板块而言，可能遭遇调整的，是依附于坚固的市场“两极”之外价值不高不低，价格又不上不下的中拍品。从《报告》给出的拍卖数据可以发现，2018年中国近现代书画估价在亿元以下，千万以上的价格区间的拍品流拍率明显其他价格区间。在2019年，这部分随市场崛起而被吹起的“泡沫”，将面临更严峻的挑战。

In 2019, for the largest share of modern and contemporary Chinese painting and calligraphy plate, the most likely adjustment is to rely on the solid market "two poles" outside the value is not high or low, the price is not high and high-end photographs. From the auction data given in the Report, we can find that the price of modern Chinese painting and calligraphy in 2018 is less than 100 million yuan, and the auction rate of more than 10 million price ranges is obviously higher than that of other price ranges. In 2019, this part of the bubble that will be blown up with the rise of the market will face more severe challenges.

2018年度近现代书画：潘天寿 1963年作 《无限风光》 2.875亿元 中国嘉德拍卖

The highest price of modern painting and calligraphy in 2018: Pan Tianshou's 1963 work "Infinite Scenery" was 287.5 million yuan at auction in China Jiade

龚继遂透露：“2018年一些私人和企业收藏开始批量回吐，这些资产经过7、8年乃至10几年的收藏，有相当比例的部分不能满足资产寄售方对投资增值年度回报率的期望值，而惨遭流标。卖家对价格过高的预期，与调整期市场压力形成一定的冲突。缺乏刚需的艺术品在市场下调期的估价营销，乃至付款交割，会在今后数年内，成为买卖双方共同关心而又相互博弈的问题的焦点。”

Gong Jisui disclosed: "In 2018, some private and corporate collections began to retake in batches. After 7, 8 or more years of collection, a considerable proportion of these high-priced assets failed to meet the expectations of the consignees for the annual return on the value-added investment, and suffered a miserable loss. Sellers'expectations of high prices are in conflict with market pressures during the adjustment period. In the next few years, the lack of newly needed artworks in the market downward period of valuation marketing, and even payment delivery, will become the focus of mutual concern and game between buyers and sellers.

买卖双方对数别书画的价格，会是一个长期拉锯的过程，这种博弈在2019年会逐步深化。在经济疲软的影响下，这一价格区间的成交量会被压缩，但一些拍品的委托方也势必逐渐松动，该价格区间较之往年调整更激烈，将会是藏家建仓的好时机。

The price of tens of millions of paintings and calligraphy by buyers and sellers will be a long-term sawing process, and this game will gradually deepen in 2019. Under the influence of economic weakness, the volume of this price range will be compressed, but some top bidders will also gradually loosen. This price range will be more intense than previous years, and it will be a good time for high-end collectors to build warehouses.

古代书画：逐渐构建成熟的卖方市场

Ancient Calligraphy and Painting: Gradually Constructing a Mature Seller's Market

古代书画市场经过2016年前后的集中挖掘和升值，在2018年进入了一个趋缓的平静期。市场对于作品的判断和美术史趋于一致，苏轼《木石图》、钱维城《台山瑞景》以及文徵明《溪堂?别图》等几件教科书级生货的成交，使得越来越多的藏家意识到，学术力量的支持才能为商业拍卖未来的发展提供能量。但相较而言，几件老面孔就没这么好运。

After intensive excavation and appreciation around 2016, the ancient painting and calligraphy market entered a quiet period of slowing down in 2018. Market judgment of works and art history tend to be consistent. Su Shi's Mushitu, Qian Wei-cheng's Taishan Ruijing and Wen Zhengming's Xitang Biebeitu are high-priced textbook-grade commodities, which make more and more Tibetans realize that the support of academic forces can provide energy for the future development of commercial auction. But by comparison, a few old faces are not so lucky.

2018年中国书画：宋 苏轼 《木石图》4.636亿港币 佳士得香港拍卖

The highest price of Chinese painting and calligraphy in 2018: 463.6 million Hong Kong dollars Christie's Hong Kong auction of Song Sushi's Mushitu

清 钱维城 《台山瑞景》 1.47亿港币 香港苏富比拍卖

Qingqian Weicheng's "Taishan Ruijing" 147 million Hong Kong dollars Sotheby's auction in Hong Kong

古代书画市场架构日趋完善，受市场环境的影响较小。2019年古代书画市场仍会以存量较多的明清书画为主，而宋元则是完全的卖方市场，一旦有鲜少露面的古代，将轻易引发藏家的竞争，而拍出。

The market structure of ancient painting and calligraphy is becoming more and more perfect, which is less affected by the market environment. In 2019, the ancient painting and calligraphy market will still be dominated by the Ming and Qing dynasties, while the Song and Yuan Dynasties will be a complete seller's market. Once there are few ancient paintings, it will easily lead to competition among Tibetans and make high prices.

当代书画：捕捉秩序重建中的机遇

Contemporary Calligraphy and Painting: Capturing Opportunities in the Reconstruction of Order

而在当代书画中，经过近几年价值体系的破与立，拍卖行逐渐筛选留下了艺术创作成熟、具有特艺术语言的当代艺术家，但距离形成新的、稳定的市场结构还有一段距离，因而2019年仍处在变动中的当代书画市场，也留下了多值得想象的价格空间。

In contemporary painting and calligraphy, after the breakdown and establishment of the value system in recent years, auction houses have gradually screened out the contemporary artists with mature artistic creation and unique artistic language, but there is still a long way to form a new and stable market structure. Therefore, in 2019, the contemporary painting and calligraphy market is still in the process of change, leaving the most imaginable price space.

从艺术史对艺术家的选择维度来看，眼下的当代书画正逐渐分化出“老、中、青”三个不同方向，即以张仃、 李小可、贾又福等具有扎实功底的老一代画家，以冯远、史国良、陈平以及新文人画中的朱新建、李津和周京新为代表的继承与创新相融合的中坚力量，以及以任重、郝量、孙浩等70、80后年轻艺术家的新水墨方向。

From the perspective of artists'choices in art history, contemporary painting and calligraphy are gradually differentiating into three different directions: old, middle and young, that is, old-generation painters with solid foundation such as Zhang Ding, Li Xiaoke and Jia Youfu, and the backbone of inheritance and innovation represented by Feng Yuan, Shi Guoliang, Chen Ping and Zhu Xinxin, Li Jin and Zhou Jingxin in new literati paintings. And the new direction of ink and wash for young artists after 70 and 80, such as Duanzhong, Hao Quang and Sun Hao.

二十世纪艺术：市场新引擎20th Century Art: New Engine of Market

或许谁都没想到，在大盘回调的2018年，曾被视为容易受到宏观经济影响的现当艺术，却逆势而上，以同比34.56%的涨幅走过了2008年以来红火的一年。

Perhaps nobody expected that in 2018, which was once considered the most vulnerable to macroeconomic impact, the current art went against the trend and went through the most prosperous year since 2008 with a huge increase of 34.56% compared with the same period last year.

2018年香港苏富比秋拍以5.1亿港元拍出赵无极《1985年6月至10月》，刷新了亚洲油画拍卖纪录

In 2018, Sotheby's Autumn Auction in Hong Kong sold Zhao Wuji's "June-October 1985" for HK$510 million, which broke the record of Asian oil painting auction.

与十年前泥沙俱下的全面普涨相比，当下的现当代艺术市场注意力变得更加集中，二十世纪艺术部分主要聚焦在赵无极、吴冠中、朱德群、常玉、陈逸飞、林风眠等一批久经市场考验的艺术家，而当代艺术有效名单则更少，在2018年几乎只剩下周春芽、曾梵志、张晓刚、刘野等寥寥数人，这也预示了2019年市场可能的走向。

Comparing with the general rise of the present contemporary art market ten years ago, the attention of the contemporary art market has become more concentrated. The artistic part of the twentieth century mainly focuses on a group of artists who have been tested by the market, such as Zhao Wuji, Wu Guanzhong, Zhu Dequn, Changyu, Chen Yifei and Lin Fengmian. There are fewer effective lists of contemporary art. In 2018, there are almost only Zhou Chunya, Zeng Fanzhi and Zhang Xiao left. Gang, Liu Ye and so on few people, which also indicates the possible trend of the market in 2019.

虽然近几年市场中也涌现了吴大羽、朱沅芷、林寿宇、郝量、余友涵等被挖掘和关注的新星，但对于市场交易而言，这份名单仍略显单薄。可见当下的藏家虽然愿意投注更多资金在现代艺术中，但对于曾经的市场崩盘仍心有余悸，所以只选择大概率能在艺术史中站稳脚跟的艺术家进行购藏，再据此形成系统梳理。

Although Wu Dayu, Zhu Yuanzhi, Lin Shouyu, Hao Quang and Yu Youhan have also emerged in the market in recent years, the list is still slightly thin for market transactions. It can be seen that although Tibetans are willing to invest more money in modern art, they still have lingering fears about the previous market crash, so they only choose artists who have the greatest probability of standing firm in the history of art to focus on purchasing and collecting, and then form a systematic comb accordingly.

吴冠中油画《双燕》成交价：1.127亿元 2018北京保利秋拍

Wu Guanzhong's Oil Painting Shuangyan: 112.7 billion yuan 2018 Beijing Poly Autumn Painting

针对这种买家心态，二十世纪艺术在2019年应会助推现当代艺术板块成长的新引擎。因为数十年的沉淀，老一辈艺术家在美术史中都有了初步定位，其形成的系统和脉络也已相对明确，更容易判断各自的艺术及历史价值。虽然二十世纪艺术中仍有许多艺术家仍在被重新认识和发掘，但市场痛点可能更多在于如何挖掘到这些艺术家的重要作品。

In view of this buyer mentality, 20th century art in 2019 should be a new engine to promote the growth of contemporary art sector. Because of decades of precipitation, the older generation of artists have a preliminary positioning in the history of art, and their formation system and context have been relatively clear, so it is easier to judge their respective artistic and historical values. Although many artists in the twentieth century are still being re-recognized and rediscovered, the market pain may lie more in how to excavate the important works of these artists.

当代艺术：变化中的全球化市场

Contemporary Art: A Changing Global Market

在遵循艺术史线索而进行收藏的老一辈藏家之外，关于“藏二代”或“新买家”的声音也是2019年初被关注的方向。例如，曾被认为是20世纪艺术大本营的台北在2019年初举行了首场台北当代艺术博览会，云集了多家近年力拓亚洲市场的国际画廊，而博览会的主创班底便有台湾本土藏二代的身影，被视做“藏二代”收藏趣味转向当代，以及台湾当代艺术购买力释放的一个信号。

Besides the senior collectors who follow the clues of art history, the voice of "the second generation of Tibetan" or "the new buyer" is also the most concerned direction in early 2019. For example, the first Taipei Contemporary Art Fair, once considered as the base of 20th century art, was held in early 2019, gathering a number of international galleries in Rio Tinto's Asian market in recent years. The main group of the Fair has the image of the second generation of Tibetan in Taiwan, which is regarded as a signal of the shift of collecting interest of the second generation of Tibetan to the contemporary era and the release of purchasing power of contemporary art in Taiwan.

2019年初开幕的台北当代艺术博览会现场

Taipei Contemporary Art Fair Opened in Early 2019

龚继遂谈到：“当下市场中买家的地域分布、年龄分布和教育背景上呈现出多元和分化的趋势，充分体现了当代艺术品收藏的地域偏好、年龄变迁，及文化表达和社交载体的特点。”

Gong Jisui said: "The geographical distribution, age distribution and educational background of buyers in the current market show a trend of diversification and differentiation, which fully reflects the geographical preferences of contemporary art collection, age changes, and the characteristics of cultural expression and social carrier."

而且新藏家的收藏完全不再局限于地域性，具有很强的国际视野，未来关于当代艺术价值的判断和竞争势必更加激烈。像万达郭庆祥儿子Carson Guo近期以530万元高调投得全球完整私人Supreme滑板珍藏，便是这股潮流的注脚之一。

Moreover, the collection of new collectors is no longer confined to the region, and has a strong international perspective. The judgment and competition about the value of contemporary art will become more intense in the future. Carson Guo, the son of Wanda Guo Qingxiang, recently invested 5.3 million yuan in the world's only complete private Supreme skateboard collection, which is one of the footnotes of this trend.

万达郭庆祥儿子Carson Guo以80万美元投得全球完整私人Supreme滑板珍藏

Wanda Guo Qingxiang's son Carson Guo invested $800,000 in the world's only complete private Supreme skateboard collection.

国际大画廊的亚洲布局，加上与之趣味相匹配的收藏新势力的购买力释放，将会在2019以及未来数年，为香港的当代艺术市场带来更加深远的改变。

The Asian layout of the International Gallery, coupled with the release of purchasing power of new collecting forces matching its interests, will bring further changes to Hong Kong's contemporary art market in 2019 and the coming years.

瓷器：宋瓷风潮日盛Porcelain: Song Porcelain Rising

作为收藏中的“大户”，瓷器杂项板块在民间收藏中基础大，而在拍卖市场中，同样也占据了2018年多的市场份额，但在2019年，2018年的很多既成事实或许都将被颠覆。

As the "big household" in the collection, the miscellaneous plate of porcelain has the largest foundation in the folk collection, and in the auction market, it also occupies the largest market share in 2018, but in 2019, many fait accomplis in 2018 may be subverted.

相较于中国书画，瓷器杂项在国际市场通性更好、藏家的身份多元，以及强大的保值性使其能够辐射全球市场。此外，瓷器杂项品类繁多，蕴藏了相当大的潜力，如前两年的佛造像，去年的青铜器，以及今年的古籍、信札和碑帖，有较多少被触及的市场洼地，东方不亮西方亮，总带来惊喜，因此近两年稳压书画一头。而在对2019年弱市行情的热点捕捉中，瓷杂板块也是具有多可能性的部分。

Compared with Chinese painting and calligraphy, porcelain miscellaneous items have better circulation in the international market, diversified identity of Tibetans, and strong value preservation, which enable them to radiate the global market. In addition, there are many kinds of miscellaneous ceramics, which have great potential. For example, the statues of Buddha in the past two years, the bronzes of last year, and the ancient books, letters and tablets of this year, there are more and more market depressions touched. The East is not bright and the west is bright, which always brings surprises. Therefore, in the past two years, there has been one steady-state painting and calligraphy. And in the hot spot capture of weak market in 2019, the porcelain miscellaneous plate is also the most likely part.

2018年贵瓷器清康熙粉红地珐琅彩开光花卉盌 成交价：2.388亿港币 香港苏富比拍卖

The most precious porcelains in 2018, Qing Kangxi pink enamel, blooming flower cups, were sold at auction for HK$238.8 million at Sotheby's Hong Kong

分门别类来看，2018年瓷器市场表现强劲的是以乾隆御瓷为代表的清三代瓷器。在2018年瓷杂成交TOP20中，清三代御瓷占据半壁江山，其华美、雍容在拍场依然有着稳健的吸引力。

In terms of classification, the most powerful market performance in 2018 is the Qing Dynasty porcelain represented by Qianlong Imperial Porcelain. In the TOP20 of the ceramics hybrid transaction in 2018, the imperial ceramics of the third generation of Qing Dynasty occupied half of the country, and their beauty and grace still had a steady attraction in the filming.

但与此同时，以宋瓷纯净、质朴为尊的新审美潮流也在2018年的市场中扩大势力范围。在2018年的市场中，可以明显感觉到藏家对宋瓷的需求已开始不再局限于传世的佳品，还有一些中乘的宋瓷，也进入藏家竞逐的视野。而且随着藏家审美趣味的演变，明清瓷的藏家一部分“升级”进入高古瓷收藏。

But at the same time, the new aesthetic trend of pride in the purity and simplicity of Song Porcelain has also expanded its influence in the market in 2018. In the market of 2018, it can be clearly felt that the demand for Song Porcelain by Tibetans is no longer limited to the top quality products handed down from generation to generation, and some middle-class Song Porcelain has also entered the field of Tibetan competition. And with the evolution of Tibetan aesthetic taste, part of the Tibetans of Ming and Qing Dynasties "upgraded" into the collection of high ancient porcelain.

南宋 官窰青釉葵瓣洗 成交价：8135.1万港币 2018年香港苏富比拍卖

Southern Song Dynasty Guankun Blue Glaze Sunflower Flap Washing Price: 81.351 million Hong Kong Dollars 2018 Hong Kong Sotheby's Auction

在瓷器收藏家、艺术品经纪人翟健民看来，“宋瓷这几年比较受到大众关注，2018年明显出现多件，对未来市场看一定要把基础打下，才能够有一个爆炸性的市场的价位。存世的宋瓷并不少，只是目前市场追求的是要流传有序，对于没有确定来源的宋瓷还是比较弱。”

Zhai Jianmin, a porcelain collector and art broker, said, "Song Porcelain has attracted more attention in recent years. In 2018, there are many high-priced high-quality products. We must lay a foundation for the future market in order to have an explosive market price. There are a lot of Song Porcelain in the world, but the current market is seeking to spread orderly, for Song Porcelain without a definite source is still relatively weak.

北宋 汝窑天青釉茶盏 成交价： 5635万港币 2018年佳士得香港秋拍

Northern Song Dynasty Ru Kiln Azure Glazed Tea Pieces Deal Price: HK$56.35 million in 2018 Christie's Hong Kong Autumn Photo

而且纵观近几年的审美和市场风向，常常是宋瓷和明清瓷之间摇摆，虽然清三代未来仍将是市场主要构成，但瓷器审美趋向的转变或许会在2019年朝着宋瓷更加倾斜。

In recent years, the trend of aesthetics and market is often between Song and Ming and Qing porcelain. Although the three generations of Qing Dynasty will still be the main component of the market, the change of aesthetic trend of porcelain will probably be more inclined towards Song porcelain in 2019.

佛像、古玉：以小博大，需求和空间未见顶

Buddha Statue and Ancient Jade: Small and Big, Needs and Space Not Top

瓷杂中的另外一个大项是来自于佛教艺术，经过2016年的大火之后，虽然在2017和2018年有所回落，但可以说是多年来合乎逻辑的调整。佛教艺术相比起书画、瓷器，可以说是新兴门类，2019年仍处于供求关系的高点上，并未达到边际效应的饱和，还有持续上升期的空间。

Another major item in porcelain miscellaneous is from Buddhist art. After the fire in 2016, although it fell back in 2017 and 2018, it can be said that it is a logical adjustment for many years. Compared with painting, calligraphy and porcelain, Buddhist art can be said to be a new category. In 2019, it is still at the high point of supply and demand, and it has not reached the saturation of marginal effect. There is still room for continuous rise.

13世纪 莲花手菩萨 铜鎏金嵌宝石 成交价：6785万元 2018年古天一秋拍

13th Century Lotus Hand Bodhisattva Bronze Bodhisattva gold inlaid gemstone transaction price: 67.85 million yuan in 2018 ancient autumn shoot

佛像、古玉等新兴板块的发展，也给一部分小型拍卖行带来一线生机，打破大拍行的垄断地位。如2018秋季的古天一、万昌斯等，都是近年来异军突起的公司，在佛像、古玉等板块火力全开，在行业内获得较好的口碑，并获得一席之地。在拍卖资源日益集中的今天，找到市场需求的薄弱处并挖掘，或许会是更多中小拍卖行在2019年的生存之道。

The development of Buddha statues, ancient jade and other emerging sectors has also brought a glimmer of vitality to some small auction houses, breaking the monopoly position of big auction houses. For example, Gutianyi and Wanchangsi in the autumn of 2018 are all companies that have emerged in recent years. They have opened fire in Buddha statues, ancient jade and other plates, and gained a good reputation and a place in the industry. With the increasing concentration of auction resources, finding the weaknesses of market demand and focusing on mining may be the way for more small and medium-sized auction houses to survive in 2019.

古籍善本：铺陈已久的

Good Texts of Ancient Books: Long-standing Value Depression

而2018年值得一提的新兴板块当属古籍善本，2018年度共诞生3件亿元古籍拍品（创下“三宗”：贵佛经、碑帖、宋版书），9件拍品，成交额同比增长200%。在其他拍卖大门类拍卖板块两极分化严重、亿元拍品冲劲不足的情况下，古籍善本犹如一匹黑马，为本年度拍卖增色不少，深究其原因，拍品本身价值、拍卖行的持续培育以及新贵藏家的建仓是重要的原因。

The most noteworthy emerging sector in 2018 is the good copy of ancient books. In 2018, a total of 300 million pieces of ancient books were produced (creating the "three most": the most expensive Buddhist sutras, tablets, Song editions), and 9 tens of millions of pieces of photographs. The turnover increased by 200% compared with the same period last year. In the case of serious polarization of other auction gates and insufficient momentum of 100 million yuan auction, the good books are like a black horse, which has greatly enhanced the auction this year. To investigate the reasons, the value of the auction itself, the continuous cultivation of auction houses and the establishment of new and expensive collectors are the important reasons.

安思远藏善本碑帖十一种 1.926亿元 世界贵善本纪录 2018年中国嘉德拍卖

Eleven kinds of inscriptions of Ansiyuan Tibetan Goodness Book, 192.6 billion yuan, the world's most precious Goodness Book Record, China Jiade Auction in 2018

事实上，内地多家拍卖行在古籍善本板块的培育由来已久，只是一直缺少一个引爆市场的机会，在2018年这一板块的需求被展开之后，古籍善本在2019年，很可能将视作各大拍卖行在传统板块趋缓情况下的重要业绩补充而被挖掘。不出意外，古籍善本拍品将在2019年的市场中进一步放量，也将会有更多和逐步浮出水面。

In fact, many auction houses in the Mainland have been cultivating good books for a long time, but they have been lacking an opportunity to explode the market. After the demand of this plate was launched in 2018, good books in 2019 will probably be regarded as an important complement to the performance of major auction houses in the case of slowing down of the traditional plate. Not surprisingly, good copies of ancient books will be further released in the market in 2019, and more high-quality products and prices will gradually emerge.

结语：Conclusion:

虽然艺术市场很可能会在2019年遭遇下行，但祸兮福所伏，从另一个角度来看这也是新一阶段变革的起点。虽然外部和内部环境总在不断变化，但艺术价值判断的“金线”以及事物和市场消长的规律却永恒不变，而这也是艺术品和市场有魅力之处。

Although the art market is likely to suffer a downturn in 2019, fortunes and misfortunes are at stake, which is also the starting point of a new phase of change from another perspective. Although the external and internal environment is always changing, the golden line of artistic value judgment and the law of things and market growth and decline remain unchanged, which is also the most attractive part of art and market.